An Honest Conversation About Fletcher Loyer

I want to start this blog by making it clear that this is not an attempt to disrespect or tear down Fletcher Loyer. He has built up an impressive resume while still only being a sophomore. Memorable moments like his 20+ point outbursts against Tennessee and Arizona, hitting the dagger in overtime versus Northwestern, his game winning triple at Ohio State as a freshmen. The list can continue as he has proven himself to be an extremely talented scoring at the highest level of college basketball.

Yet, his recent struggles and year long inconsistencies makes the Fletcher Loyer discussion a pressing one in the minds of Purdue fans. I again want to reiterate my desire to not attack Fletcher, rather investigate what things are different between his good and bad games.

Starts at the Catch

Going back to the Tennessee and Arizona games where Fletcher poured in 27 and 22 points respectfully, the main difference in Fletcher's play was how he was catching the ball. For example, compare the below clips from Tennessee and then Ohio State. Watch Loyer's feet while he is catching the ball.

The first clip, he looks into the post but quickly decides on a shallow drive that allow Jones to attack a short closeout and kick it back to Loyer who's ready and buries the three. Against Ohio State, Loyer has a three but his feet are all messed up. He still got to the free throw line, but if his feet were ready he could have shot an open three or faked Battle off the ground and scored a layup.

Against Ohio State, Loyer gives up a wide open three to drive into the paint where he misses and Ohio State gets the rebound. The same situation against Tennessee, he buries the three and puts Purdue up right out of half.

The More Threes the Merrier

While talking about Loyer, you'll notice the two clips from Tennessee are both threes while Ohio State contains two drives. To go a step further, both of drives were not "bad" drives. Yet, in a game (Ohio State) where Purdue attempted only nine threes, these plays are extremely important for both Purdue and Loyer.

For Loyer, he has shot 42/109 on two pointers this season, that equates to 0.77 points per a shot (PPS). Interestingly, Loyer has shot 43/102 on threes this season, equating to 1.26 PPS. In the context of PPS, Loyer passing up two threes to drive into the paint versus Ohio State is losing Purdue approximately one point in a game that they lost by four.

To exhibit this further, let's take a look at Loyer's net rating. Individual net ratings summarize a players value while he is on the floor, the more positive the better. Loyer has had a positive net rating in 12 games this season. In those 12 games, Loyer attempted 4+ three pointers in 11 out of 12 of those games. In the other 14 games where Loyer has had a negative net rating, he attempted 4+ threes in only 2 of the 14 games.

How Loyer Turns it Around

Purdue has an incredible shooting threat with Loyer's ability to knock down shots from the perimeter. Plus, with the addition of Lance Jones, Purdue has the luxury of moving Loyer off ball to where he naturally fits better. The key is prioritize threes over twos and building Loyer's offensive responsibility around his shooting. Against Ohio State and even Minnesota, Loyer never found a good shooting rhythm because he was never in a good shooting situation.

Loyer gets some space in transition but he is off balance with his momentum going to the baseline. The next catch, Loyer curls into space but a pull up 15 footer is worth 0.77 points compared to hunting a three that is worth 1.26 points.

Look at how much space Loyer has on either side on this catch. Yet, his feet are not ready and his momentum takes him to the sideline. If his momentum is headed towards the rim, this entire possession changes because the defender has to actually guard Loyer who is a 42% three point shooter.

These are just a few examples to illustrate the broader point of why Loyer has bee struggling and how he can break out of that slump. His preparation before his catches are vital, because they allow him to play off of his lethal jumper. Keep Loyer on the perimeter where he can step into threes and provide the scoring that he brought against Arizona and Tennessee.

Go Purdue!