Can Arizona Win a National Title?

Last season, the Arizona Wildcats suffered a stunning first round defeat that was luckily overshadowed by an ever more shocking upset when Purdue was packed up by Fairleigh Dickinson. But, as many Arizona (and Purdue) fans have told themselves, this year is totally different! The talent and versatility throughout the roster assembled by head coach Tommy Lloyd makes this team a real title threat... right?

In this series, I will explore a teams legitimacy to win a national title based on historical numbers that I will list below. Furthermore, I identify the strengths that could lead to a national title and the weaknesses that could prove fatal. Finally, I predict the ideal and less than ideal matchups that could occur before reaching the title game.

Numerical Qualifications

NOTE: These do not disqualify teams, rather indicates confidence in those teams

1. Adjusted offensive efficiency above 110 (1 point)

   1. Elite offenses are above 120 (1 point)

2. Adjusted defensive efficiency below 100 (1 point)

   1. Elite defensive are below 95 (1 point)

3. Adjusted Tempo between 65 and 69 (1 point)

4. Offensive EFG% higher than defensive EFG% by four percent (1 point)

5. Defensive turnover rate higher than offensive turnover rate (1 point)

6. Offensive rebounding rate higher than defensive rebounding rate by 5 percent (1 point)

EIGHT POSSIBLE POINTS

The Wildcats reached an impressive six out of the eight qualifiers. Only missing an elite defense and playing at an extremely fast tempo. Yet, the Wildcats do a great job of winning the possession battle by dominating the glass and controlling turnovers. In the games that they have lost, the big storyline is three point shooting and the lack of threes that Arizona has created.

Film Study - Strengths

Arizona converts defensive breakdowns into points at an almost surgical level. Arizona always has four players on the floor that can drive, shoot, and pass at a high level with either big capable of finishing around the rim. Against USC, Keshad Johnson senses a Trojan defender relaxing and it is all over after that.

Arizona is methodical in their defensive game planning. They will exploit any teams that do not have five players that can score. A good example is how they guarded Ryan Young in their early season win at Duke. Dropping Ballo or Krivas to protect the rim and face guarding the other four Duke players whenever Young had the ball. If teams aren't able to put five threats on the floor, it will be a long night against Arizona's defense.

Film Study - Weaknesses

Offensively, Caleb Love receives the majority of the attention as the primary scorer. Yet, Pelle Larson is arguably the Wildcats most important player. When Larson has an offensive rating below 100, Arizona is 3-4 compared to 21-3 when Larson is plays well on offense. If teams can stop Larson from creating plays, the responsibility will go to Caleb Love good or bad.

Arizona's defense is talented with size all over the roster and flexibility that allows them to switch one through four. Yet, Arizona can be sloppy at times with their positioning that leads to self-inflicted breakdowns. In the clip below, Johnson reaches at the ball after switching onto Collier and gives the future NBA player a straight line drive to the rim.

Fun March Matchups

Best Matchup - Arizona vs Kentucky

Both teams play at an extreme pace, but it is Arizona's ability to generate extra possessions that gives the Wildcats the advantage. Furthermore, the center position for Kentucky is an area that Arizona can exploit to make it much harder for the Kentucky guards.

Worst Matchup - Arizona vs Creighton

When Arizona has lost, it is often the product of opposing teams winning the three point battle. in all but one of the Wildcats seven losses, opposing teams have made more threes at a higher percentage than Arizona. The Creighton jump shooting Jays shoot a lot of threes and don't allow many on defense. Additionally, two-time defensive player of the year Ryan Kalkbrenner will play a huge role in stunting Arizona's paint attack.

Can Arizona Win a National Title?

The analytics point to the Wildcats as one of the favorites and when playing well, Arizona seems unbeatable. I do not doubt Arizona's ability to win games when they are playing well, it is when they are not playing well that concerns me. According to Torvik, Arizona is 2-7 when they have a game score below 90 (Houston 2-3, UConn 9-3, Purdue 3-3, Tennessee 5-6, UNC 8-6). For this reason, I put Arizona as a final four contender and a tier below the true title threats.