Can Auburn Win a National Title?

Sam Bourne
Feb 16, 2024
3 min read

Chaos. That is how I would describe the Auburn Tigers under Bruce Pearl. Currently projected to be a three seed in the NCAA tournament according to BracketMatrix with a 19-5 record. The Tigers rate even higher according to Kenpom, sitting at fifth in the country with an adjusted efficiency margin that is higher than the 2019 Auburn team that made a Final Four. Let's find out if this Auburn team can go further and win the NCAA National Title.

In this series, I will explore a teams legitimacy to win a national title based on historical numbers that I will list below. Furthermore, I identify the strengths that could lead to a national title and the weaknesses that could prove fatal. Finally, I predict the ideal and less than ideal matchups that could occur before reaching the title game.

Numerical Qualifications

NOTE: These do not disqualify teams, rather indicates confidence in those teams

Adjusted offensive efficiency above 110 (1 point)
1. Elite offenses are above 120 (1 point)
Adjusted defensive efficiency below 100 (1 point)
1. Elite defensive are below 95 (1 point)
Adjusted Tempo between 65 and 69 (1 point)
Offensive EFG% higher than defensive EFG% by four percent (1 point)
Defensive turnover rate higher than offensive turnover rate (1 point)
Offensive rebounding rate higher than defensive rebounding rate by 5 percent (1 point)

EIGHT POSSIBLE POINTS

Auburn reaches six out of the eight qualifiers and firmly plants themselves into the contenders tier. Their shooting defense amazing, ranking second in the country and allowing only three teams to shoot an effective field goal percentage over 50%. On the other hand, Auburn is only shooting 32.9% from three, a far cry from their scorching 38.1% that propelled Auburn to their previous Final Four.

Auburn Film Study - Strengths

The duo of Johne Broome and Jaylin Williams is arguably the best frontcourt pairing in the country. Both players can create shots by driving or posting up while still providing spacing with their passing and shooting. This level of flexibility in the frontcourt reminds me of Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker. A frontcourt that led Wisconsin to the Final Four, something the Auburn frontcourt is trying to do this season. The clip below just shows flexibility and connection that Broome and Williams have together.

Last season, the UConn Huskies marched to the title in large part because of how they created defensive chaos while still remaining connected. That ability is mirrored in this Auburn team. The whole team plays with the pedal to the metal, while still flowing through perfect defensive switches. On this possession, Auburn's press nearly creates a turnover but Alabama retains the ball. No matter, Alabama breaks free after multiple drive attempts but out of nowhere the ball gets spiked and nearly leads to a break away dunk on the other end.

Auburn Fill Study - Weaknesses

Unlike the 2019 Auburn Tigers, this rendition of Auburn is seemingly lacking on trustworthy guards. The top four guards are Tre Donaldson, Denver Jones, KD Johnson, and Aden Holloway that combine to shoot 32% from three. The tendency of their guards will consistently use up valuable possessions with inefficient, contested jumpers that have led to Auburn being 0-4 in close games.

The difference between Auburn at the Jungle and away from Jungle is something to monitor going into March Madness. After their route at Florida, they sit at 7-5 in road or neutral site games. This team is really good, but they generate so much energy from their raucous crowd that it leads to confusing results where Auburn loses games that they were expected to win.

Auburn Home Splits

Auburn Road/Neutral Splits

March Matchups

Best Matchup - Auburn vs BYU

The Cougars in Provo are a legit team with positional size and shooting spilling out of their ears. Yet, the controlled chaos and pressure of Auburn could disrupt the BYU dribble handoffs and screening actions that they run. On the other end, Auburn's duo of Broome and Williams could be enough to lead the Tigers over the Cougars.

Worst Matchup - Auburn vs Marquette

Auburn is the best team in the country at defending against two point shots. Marquette is top 15 in two point offense and generate the majority of their shots attacking with their guards driving the ball. With a clear advantage in guard play over Auburn, the Golden Eagles could punch Auburns ticket to an early vacation.