Can Duke Win a National Title?

Sam Bourne
Mar 10, 2024
3 min read

The Duke Blue Devils are one of the juggernaut brands in college basketball. In the past two season after legendary coach Mike Krzyzewski retired, Duke basketball has seemed dormant. Yet, Duke basketball is far from absent this season. Currently, the Blue Devils are ranked top ten in both Kenpom and the Associated Press poll. But with a new coach, the questions about Duke's legitimacy as a national title contender are still undetermined.

In this series, I will explore a teams legitimacy to win a national title based on historical numbers that I will list below. Furthermore, I identify the strengths that could lead to a national title and the weaknesses that could prove fatal. Finally, I predict the ideal and less than ideal matchups that could occur before reaching the title game.

Numerical Qualifications

NOTE: These do not disqualify teams, rather indicates confidence in those teams

Adjusted offensive efficiency above 110 (1 point)
1. Elite offenses are above 120 (1 point)
Adjusted defensive efficiency below 100 (1 point)
1. Elite defensive are below 95 (1 point)
Adjusted Tempo between 65 and 69 (1 point)
Offensive EFG% higher than defensive EFG% by four percent (1 point)
Defensive turnover rate higher than offensive turnover rate (1 point)
Offensive rebounding rate higher than defensive rebounding rate by 5 percent (1 point)

EIGHT POSSIBLE POINTS

Duke scores an impressive seven out of eight on the analytical qualifiers. Duke is lights out shooting the ball, ranking top 20 in effective field goal percentage by being efficient from three as well as two point range. Despite their shooting, they rank between Florida and Kansas in shot quality at seventeenth according to Shot Quality.

Duke Film Study - Strengths

The offense is balanced with multiple guard scorers as well as physical bigs that can stretch to the perimeter and create plays themselves. By having so many scorers, Duke is able to expose mismatches at any position. Add in the duo of Tyrese Proctor plus Jared McCain who can shoot, pass, or drive at a high level and this Duke offense extremely challenging to stop.

I love watching the Duke perimeter defenders play because of their connectivity. The guards communicate really well which allows for them to alternate between switching and not switching depending on situations. Furthermore, on the ball Proctor and McCain are solid while Roach is much improved from a season ago.

Duke Film Study - Weaknesses

With most of the Duke players being good scorers with the ball, it sometimes distracts from their lack of cutting overall. This shows itself with their lack of offensive rebounds, ranking 81st in offensive rebound rate. But also allows for teams to send help to stop Duke's driving game without being punished.

The interior defense from Duke is extremely concerning. Kyle Filipowski offers very little resistance against bigger, stronger centers in the post and the rim protection is not much better. Duke's two point defense is outside of the top one hundred, leading to key loses against teams that can dominate the paint in the form of North Carolina and Arizona.

Fun March Matchups

Best Matchup - Duke vs Illinois

Duke is capable of matching up extremely well with Illinois flexibility at all five position. At the five, Filipowski will be able to use physicality of offense, while not facing a bruising big on the defensive side. Yet, it is the Illinois defensive style that could be exploited, giving Duke a ton one on one matchups with space that the Duke perimeter players can attack.

Worst Matchup - Duke vs Purdue

Duke struggles to defend the interior, so a matchup against the greatest interior force the sport has seen since Zion Williamson would be a great challenge. Plus, Purdue can hide Edey on Mitchell or Young on defense which keeps him near the rim. It would take an elite performance from the Duke guards from a shooting perspective to come out victorious.