Can Houston Win a National Title?

Sam Bourne
Feb 21, 2024
4 min read

The Houston Cougars are one of the more controversial teams in College Basketball. The stigma around Houston is centered around the idea that Houston beats up on nobodies instead of challenging themselves against the countries best. Despite Houston playing the Big 12 this season and making the second weekend in four straight NCAA tournaments, the stigma remains. This blog seeks to determine if Houston are pretenders, or a serious threat to win the national title.

In this series, I will explore a teams legitimacy to win a national title based on historical numbers that I will list below. Furthermore, I identify the strengths that could lead to a national title and the weaknesses that could prove fatal. Finally, I predict the ideal and less than ideal matchups that could occur before reaching the title game.

Numerical Qualifications

NOTE: These do not disqualify teams, rather indicates confidence in those teams

Adjusted offensive efficiency above 110 (1 point)
1. Elite offenses are above 120 (1 point)
Adjusted defensive efficiency below 100 (1 point)
1. Elite defensive are below 95 (1 point)
Adjusted Tempo between 65 and 69 (1 point)
Offensive EFG% higher than defensive EFG% by four percent (1 point)
Defensive turnover rate higher than offensive turnover rate (1 point)
Offensive rebounding rate higher than defensive rebounding rate by 5 percent (1 point)

EIGHT POSSIBLE POINTS

Unsurprisingly, the Houston Cougars perform well from a statistical perspective as they are ranked as the top team in the Country according to Kenpom. Meeting six out of the eight categories, narrowly missing the elite offense qualification and playing at an extremely slow pace. Their biggest strength is gaining extra possessions with rebounding and forcing more turnovers than they commit.

Houston Film Study - Strengths

Teams coached by Kelvin Sampson are known for their efforts on the offensive glass and this team is no different. The Cougars rebound an incredible 38.7% of their misses. The roster is filled with athletic players that have great instincts of when to crash, often beating opponents blockouts before the shot is in the air.

Houston takes a quick shot against Iowa State and the Cyclones do a great job finding bodies. From the picture above, it seems pretty clear that Iowa State should get this rebound and finish off a nice defensive possession. Wrong, the long arms of Roberts and Francis somehow generate another possession for the Cougars.

Watching Houston's defense feels like being trapped in a dark closet. Offensive players are constantly left dazed and confused with how Houston can double ball screens and post ups while leaving nobody open. I am sure opposing coaches catch themselves counting how many players Houston has on the floor because their connectivity and effort makes it feel like Houston plays with six defenders.

From the clip, it is easy to point out the bigs flying around the floor or the guards navigating screens with ease. Rather, I want to focus on Emmanuel Sharp (#21) and how he seemingly senses his tardiness in cover for the double. Very rarely do you see a single defender in college demonstrate the ability to understand his defensive responsibility without watching the ball. Houston has a whole team of defenders that could probably get a stop with their eyes closed.

Houston Film Study - Weaknesses

Despite generating a ton of second chance points off of offensive rebounds that are often layups, Houston has struggled inside the arc. Part of the issue is the amount of mid range shots that the Cougars take, approximately 39% of the shots come from the mid range. A worrisome number considering they have scored 0.73 points per a shot in that area. The lack of rim pressure and free throws lead into the Cougars relying on inefficient offense.

With such an aggressive defensive style, Houston relies on their instincts to fly around the floor. This can lead to an Houston being vulnerable when teams are able to penetrate into the lane and then look to pass. Kansas had majority of their success by getting to the ball into the paint and making intelligent cuts that led to good offense. Unfortunately for their opponents, Houston doesn't allow teams into the paint very often.

Fun March Matchups

Bad Matchup - Houston vs BYU

Now, I know Houston has already beaten BYU on the road. But I still think that the blue Cougars have a lot of the pieces that are needed to beat Houston. If BYU can keep the possession close, they have the ability to rain down three enough threes to beat Houston.

Good Matchup - Houston vs Duke

I will keep this relatively short. If North Carolina can bother Duke with their physicality and aggressiveness, the Houston Cougars are enough to give the Blue Devils nightmares.