Can Iowa State Win a National Title?

The Iowa State Cyclones are 20-5 and ranked ninth in the country according to Kenpom. Their team identity comes on the defensive end of the floor with their ability to force turnovers, ranking in the top ten in steals while having the top rated defensive turnover rate per Barttorvik. Is this teams lack of national recognition an indication of March woes, or does this Iowa State team have enough to reach the mountain top?

In this series, I will explore a teams legitimacy to win a national title based on historical numbers that I will list below. Furthermore, I identify the strengths that could lead to a national title and the weaknesses that could prove fatal. Finally, I predict the ideal and less than ideal matchups that could occur before reaching the title game.

Numerical Qualifications

NOTE: These do not disqualify teams, rather indicates confidence in those teams

1. Adjusted offensive efficiency above 110 (1 point)

   1. Elite offenses are above 120 (1 point)

2. Adjusted defensive efficiency below 100 (1 point)

   1. Elite defensive are below 95 (1 point)

3. Adjusted Tempo between 65 and 69 (1 point)

4. Offensive EFG% higher than defensive EFG% by four percent (1 point)

5. Defensive turnover rate higher than offensive turnover rate (1 point)

6. Offensive rebounding rate higher than defensive rebounding rate by 5 percent (1 point)

EIGHT POSSIBLE POINTS

The Cyclones scored on six of the eight categories which lands them in the true contenders tier. Iowa State misses on having an elite offense and the rebounding numbers are approaching a concerning point. Although, the turnover advantage that this team possesses serves as the great equalizer that makes them a deadly opponent in March.

Iowa State Film Study - Strengths

The blow by ability from the two lead guards Tamin Lipsey and Keshon Gilbert gives Iowa State the ability to self-create advantages for the offense. Having those two guards allows players such as Milan Momcilovic and Curtis Jones to knockdown shots or attack closeouts generated from Lipsey and Gibson. Iowa State has the supporting cast that can shoot, drive, and rebound while the two guards can handle the playmaking responsibility.

From a statistical makeup, this team is similar to the 2013 Louisville Cardinals that won the national championship. Like that team, Iowa State is led defensively by their guards that cause a ton of havoc. Additionally, the Cyclones have mobile bigs that can apply pressure onto perimeter bigs. This ability to pressure at every position gives the offense no room to relax and often leads to steals for Iowa State.

Iowa State Film Study - Weaknesses

The three shooting away from home is extremely concerning for the Cyclones. In Hilton, the Cyclones shoot a blistering 40% from three, on the road or in neutral site games, that number falls to 29%. This level of three point shooting could improve with a higher sample, but may eventually lead to a stunning March upset.

Iowa State Home Splits

Iowa State Road/Neutral Splits

Iowa State runs a 'no middle' defense that relies heavily on ball pressure and baseline help defense, they play this style very well. But one of the necessary weaknesses is the long closeouts that Iowa State has to execute in order to properly help on the baseline. They compound this weakness by leaving their feet on a ton of closeouts, a habit that has led to opponents shooting nearly 34% (35% in top 100 games).

Fun March Matchups

Best Matchup - Iowa State vs Auburn

The Tigers have one of the best front courts in America, partially because very few teams can match up with their versatility on offense. This Cyclones still have the ability to apply pressure to those bigs while making their guards feel uncomfortable. Overall, this game may come down to Iowa State's guards playing better than Auburn's guards both offensively and defensively.

Worst Matchup - Iowa State vs Alabama

The three point potential from the Crimson Tide is a daunting task for any team to stop. But for a Cyclone team that is so good on the defensive end, a team such as Alabama could expose Iowa State for over helping on the weakside or trying to contain drives. On offense, Iowa State has the ability to attack Alabama with their own dribble drive ability, but the three point advantage could spell doom for Iowa State.

Can Iowa State Win a National Title?

This Iowa State has the analytical profile that puts them as a contender. Yet, the concerns around opponent quality and how Iowa State plays away from home are still make me hold them out of the tier one contenders. Yet, the guard talent and defensive excellence are still enough to make me confident in a deep run from the Cyclones.