Can North Carolina Win a National Title?

Not only is North Carolina one of the college basketball blue bloods, they are also a fascinating team as they attempt to bounce back from last season. The Tar Heels are led by a resurgent RJ Davis on offense and Armando Bacot on defense. The rest of the roster has a lot of new faces in Harrison Ingram, Elliott Cadeau, and Cormac Ryan that have filled into vacated starting positions.

In this series, I will explore each teams legitimacy to win a national title based on historical numbers that I will list below. Next, I am going to identify the strengths that could lead to a national title and the weaknesses that could prove fatal. Finally, looking at some ideal and less than ideal matchups that could occur before reaching the title game.

Numerical Qualifications

NOTE: These do not disqualify teams, rather indicates confidence in those teams

1. Adjusted offensive efficiency above 110 (1 point)

   1. Elite offenses are above 120 (1 point)

2. Adjusted defensive efficiency below 100 (1 point)

   1. Elite defensive are below 95 (1 point)

3. Adjusted Tempo between 65 and 69 (1 point)

4. Offensive EFG% higher than defensive EFG% by four percent (1 point)

5. Defensive turnover rate higher than offensive turnover rate (1 point)

6. Offensive rebounding rate higher than defensive rebounding rate by 5 percent (1 point)

EIGHT POSSIBLE POINTS

North Carolina has placed them in a great position within these qualifications, meeting six out of the eight qualifications. From a statistical standpoint, North Carolina is led by their elite defense that is ranked inside the top ten in adjusted defensive efficiency according to Kenpom. The main concern for North Carolina comes on the offensive end, where outside of RJ Davis they are shooting 32% from three, a number that would look even worse if Harrison Ingram was not shooting ten percentage points higher than his career averages from the arc.

What Makes North Carolina a Contender

The common saying in college basketball is 'guards win in March' and North Carolina's RJ Davis is arguably the best guard in the country. Davis brings a level of gravity with his offensive flexibility that allows him to score against different styles in the NCAA Tournament. The senior shooting guard is average 21.3 points per game on career high efficiency. The clip below shows this gravitational pressure that Davis puts on defenses with his scoring ability, here pushing in transition that gives his teammates an advantage for the offensive rebound.

Furthermore, the match up flexibility in the front court with Bacot and Ingram is a massive luxury for head coach Hubert Davis. Both bigs are strong, high effort defenders that can stretch out to defend the perimeter or go inside to battle in the paint. This flexibility allows for North Carolina to play an athletic style of defense without sacrificing physicality against a variety of different styles that they will face in March.

What Makes North Carolina a Pretender

Outside of questionable perimeter shooting, the passing ability from Ryan, Davis, Trimble, and Cadeau leaves me wanting more. The concern is lessened by North Carolina's refusal to turn the ball over. Yet, North Carolina often resorts to hero ball instead of a more free flowing style that past title-quality North Carolina teams have had. The clip below shows a common example of choosing an okay shot over moving the ball for a better shot.

An elite defensive team such as North Carolina does not have many weaknesses with athleticism all over the court. Yet, it is this athleticism that leads to my concern with their individualistic style of defense. Playing a tight man to man style, North Carolina can overwhelm teams that do not have positional advantages and the ability to beat the Tar Heels one on one. For example, Tennessee and UConn are talented team offenses that use player motion (UConn) and team driving (Tennessee) that led to North Carolina's worst two defensive outings.

March Matchups

1. North Carolina vs Baylor - With North Carolina playing a tighter man defense and Bacot playing in drop coverage, the ability of the Baylor guards to get into the lane and kickout or hit potential lottery pick Yves Missi on the roll could give North Carolina fits. Additionally, Baylor will use a 1-3-1 zone that could take the ball away from RJ Davis and force the other players on North Carolina to score points.

2. North Carolina vs Auburn - Both teams will bring elite defenses into a matchup in March, yet the edge could go to North Carolina because Bacot's ability to defend Auburn's star, Johni Broome. On the other end, having a tough shot maker in RJ Davis could prove the difference against an Auburn defense that is so good at speeding teams up.