Can Purdue Win a National Title?

Sam Bourne
Feb 29, 2024
3 min read

As I am sure many people remember, Purdue was on the wrong end of an historic upset as Fairleigh Dickson upset the Boilermakers in the first round. Another disappointing ending to a promising season. A year later, Purdue finds themselves in a similar situation as last season with even more doubters. Let's dive into the Purdue Boilermakers to determine if this team can do what so many past teams failed to.

In this series, I will explore a teams legitimacy to win a national title based on historical numbers that I will list below. Furthermore, I identify the strengths that could lead to a national title and the weaknesses that could prove fatal. Finally, I predict the ideal and less than ideal matchups that could occur before reaching the title game.

Numerical Qualifications

NOTE: These do not disqualify teams, rather indicates confidence in those teams

Adjusted offensive efficiency above 110 (1 point)
1. Elite offenses are above 120 (1 point)
Adjusted defensive efficiency below 100 (1 point)
1. Elite defensive are below 95 (1 point)
Adjusted Tempo between 65 and 69 (1 point)
Offensive EFG% higher than defensive EFG% by four percent (1 point)
Defensive turnover rate higher than offensive turnover rate (1 point)
Offensive rebounding rate higher than defensive rebounding rate by 5 percent (1 point)

EIGHT POSSIBLE POINTS

Purdue grades out well within these qualifications by reaching six out of the eight qualifiers. As always, Purdue dominates the glass with the best rebounder that college basketball has seen this decade in Zach Edey. A statistical concern with this team is the turnover margin, where Purdue has ranked extremely low in forcing turnovers.

Purdue Film Study - Strengths

Zach Edey and Braden Smith form the best duo in college basketball both in terms of impact and fit. Edey is the biggest force in the sport with his rebounding, scoring, screening, and sheer physical presence. While Smith controls the game through the pick and roll with his passing as well as scoring that is aided with the attention that Edey demands.

The easiest answer for Purdue's defensives strengths is Zach Edey protecting the rim. But I want to expand that to the frontcourt players that Purdue pairs with Edey. Trey Kauffman-Renn, Caleb Furst, and Mason Gillis are all solid defenders in large part because of their flexibility. The collection of front court players at Purdue allows them to play with matchups while maintaining their physical advantage.

Purdue Film Study - Weaknesses

Purdue does not fully capitalize on the gravity that Edey and Smith bring to the game. Their movement and cutting is often lacking which allows teams to flood bodies at Edey and only give up threes instead of Purdue cutting for layups. Additionally, the screening and cutting that does happen off ball is inefficient movement and often leads to poor spacing. (See first matchup versus Northwestern and the second half of Marquette)

Perimeter defense is a definite concern with Purdue. Elite guards such as Boo Buie, Mark Sears, and Caleb Love have had big games against the Boilermakers. The smaller guards of Braden Smith, Lance Jones, and Fletcher Loyer all have trouble navigating screens navigation. Furthermore, Purdue is not good at putting pressure on the ball so offensive players can quickly find an offensive rhythm.

Fun March Matchups

Best Matchup - Purdue vs Kansas

A marquee rematch with Zach Edey and Hunter Dickinson squaring off. Purdue leans on the physical advantage in the frontcourt that can out match Kansas. Plus, the Kansas does not have the athleticism or depth to pressure Purdue enough for it to matter.

Worst Matchup - Purdue vs Houston

Matching up with Houston, Purdue would have to have their best performances of the season to knock of the Cougars for two reasons. First, Houston can force Purdue into a lot of turnovers. Second, by doubling the post and ball screens, Houston can take the ball from Edey and Smith and force a role player to beat them.