Does Arizona Have a March Problem?

The Arizona Wildcats have had an impressive three-year run under Tommy Lloyd, a fact further emphasized by the suddenness with which Lloyd was able to cement himself and Arizona as a perennial top-ten team. In his first season, Lloyd guided the Wildcats to a 33-4 record and earned a one-seed in the NCAA tournament. In the following years, they won 27 and 28 games, respectively, earning the two-seed in consecutive years.

Although, the regular season dominance has yet to lead to much success in March. As a one seed in 2022, they were scrapped by TCU in the second round only to lose to Houston without their best player in the Sweet Sixteen. The following year concluded with a stunning upset by Princeton. The most recent tournament saw the Wildcats lose to six-seeded Clemson in the Sweet Sixteen. In total, Tommy Lloyd's team has gone 4-3 in March Madness and has lost to a lower seed all three years. Does Arizona have a March problem?

2022 - Arizona vs Houston

As mentioned above, Houston was without Marcus Sasser. Although the five-seeded Cougars were also ranked as the second-best team in the country according to Kenpom. This was a poor reward for the top-seeded Wildcats.

Statistically, the difference in the game was two-point shooting. Houston went 14-30 (47%) from two-point range and Arizona was held to 11-32 (35%). The possessions that ended with a shot or free throws were identical with Arizona outrebounding Houston but losing the turnover battle. This game was decided by shooting. Let's dive in and see if the tape can explain the difference in shooting or if Arizona was just unlucky.

Throughout the game, it was clear that Houston could get to the rim off the bounce and generate great offense off of that. Azuolis Tubelis had a tough night because Houston continually attacked him on drives. Arizona "scram" switched these drives but that forced Tubelis to make another closeout which Houston attacked again, eventually leading to good offense.

The on-ball problems were not limited to Tubelis. The Wildcat perimeter players struggled containing drives from Houston.

The defensive struggle bled over to the offense because Arizona couldn't get into transition off of made baskets. This forced Arizona into a half-court game where they relied on tough jumpers. An issue further exposed by Houston frequently getting to the rim.

For Tommy Lloyd, I liked how he tried to address the defensive struggles. Arizona used the scram to success when Tubelis was guarding the perimeter, unfortunately, Houston's counter of just driving Tubelis again broke the scram switch. On offense, I would have liked to see Lloyd pivot away from his guards and lean into the size of his frontcourt where I thought they had success.

2023 - Arizona vs Princeton

In Tommy Lloyd's second season, Arizona again proved elite during the regular season despite the losses of Benedict Mathurin and Dalen Terry. Losing those two NBA wings, Arizona adjusted to play through their dominant post duo of Azulis Tubelis and Oumar Ballo. Earning a two-seed, Arizona started the tournament against Princeton.

Despite Arizona only allowing Princeton to score 6 points in the first 8 minutes, Princeton stayed within single digits. Princeton's defense was being battered by the Wildcat's frontcourt but did just enough. Finding their own advantages as the game wore on, holding Arizona to only 7 free throws, 14 attempts below their season average.

Princeton's ability to balance physicality with discipline gave Tubelis fits. Here's a good example of their discipline, Pierce does his work early to push Tubelis out to the elbow. This allows the wing players to shrink the court and dissuade Tubelis from driving the ball. Arizona never adjusted and it led to ill-advised shots.

The final piece of Arizona's struggles was the disappointing play from point guard, Kerr Kriisa. He played 36 minutes and logged a 36.9 individual offensive rating, his worst season output. He plays a reckless style that creates variance for himself and everything went wrong against Princeton.

On offense, Princeton took a page out of Houston's book and attacked the Wildcat's defenders. Although Princeton lacked elite athletes, they adjusted to post-ups instead of drives. Specifically, Tosan Evbuomwan matched up against the Arizona Wings.

For Tommy Lloyd's performance, he was stubborn in his offensive approach. Princeton was able to shrink the court because Arizona plays so much through the middle of the court. The defense was never stretched horizontally with flare screens or skip passes to the opposite side of Princeton doubled the post. For Arizona's defense, I would've liked for them to send more doubles when Evbuomwan had a smaller player in the post. But, Arizona only allowed 59 points, and losing is disappointing.

2024 - Arizona vs Clemson

For the third year, Tommy Lloyd lost a lot but brought in just as much talent. After losing Tubelis to the pros, Lloyd brought in Keshad Johnson to play next to Ballo. The backcourt of Kerr Krissa and Ramey was disbanded for Kylan Boswell and Caleb Love. With another revamped roster, Arizona still dominated the regular season and earned a two-seed.

In the Sweet Sixteen, Arizona met Clemson, led by a strong frontcourt. Yet, it wasn't the frontcourt that made the difference. The combination of Caleb Love and inconsistent shooting proved the downfall of Arizona. This marked the third straight disappointing exit for Arizona.

When analyzing the game, Clemson's strategy proved bold. They did everything they could to keep Arizona out of the paint and sacrificed three-pointers to shooters they didn't think could beat them. This involved heavy gap help, closing out short to guards, and using Ian Schieffelin to roam the defensive paint.

Here's an example of the gap help Clemson was showing to Arizona. The reason why Clemson turned to this was because Arizona's lack of shooting. Caleb Love went 0-9 from three and neither Pelle Larson or Kylan Boswell looked like they didn't want to shoot the ball.

Thus, Clemson was able to sink into gaps and drop in front of post ups. Out of timeouts however, the Arizona staff took advantage of what Clemson was doing and generated great offense. Here's one example of Clemson attacking the hard hedge, using the fact that Schieffelin is roaming to open up his man to make the high-low pass.

Arizona's defense was again pretty solid like they were against Princeton. They allowed 89 points but I would point to some shooting luck for Clemson, especially in the mid-range area. Then Arizona made some dumb offensive decisions that directly led to Clemson buckets.

Upon review, the loss to Clemson is disappointing but understandable. Clemson came into the game with a boom-or-bust game plan that worked perfectly. The fact that Arizona could get a good look at three nearly every possession down the floor but didn't have anyone capitalize lends to the craziness of March.

Conclusion

With three straight losses to lower seeds, it is only natural for questions to arise about Tommy Lloyd. He has had an unprecedented amount of success in his first three years but continues to fall short. In his first two years, the late losses were a result of defensive limitations on the perimeter. Additionally, the perimeter players that they relied on wilted at the worst time. In this past season, Caleb Love continued the trend of star Wildcats fluttering. But it was the team-wide lack of consistent passing that doomed them. Clemson took away their strengths and Arizona could not consistently make the correct decisions.

The series of issues falls in part on Lloyd. After all, he constructed the roster. He also struggled to make adjustments away from his struggling stars. In 2022, the bigs of Arizona had an opportunity to carry them past Houston instead of sinking on the shoulders of the perimeter players. The following year, Kriisa's struggles were juxtaposed with the success Kylan Boswell was having. Yet, Lloyd went with his guys and lost.

My overall conclusion for Arizona is simple. Tommy Lloyd is a spectacular schematic coach. He's got a great staff that has infused Arizona with the talent expected from the elite program. Yet, I think he is still finding his way in roster construction. I think the 2025 team is susceptible to a similar fate because he has not learned the value of consistency. Not having great decision-makers and shooters on the roster could be the downfall of another dominant Arizona team.