Preview: Tennessee vs Creighton

Tennessee and Creighton is my favorite matchup in the sweet sixteen for three reasons. First, the jersey matchup with Tennessee wearing the white home jerseys and Creighton with their blue road jerseys is elite. Second, the wing talent in this game is incredible and. arguably contains the two best wings in the country with Dalton Knecht and Baylor Scheierman... Oh yeah, and 17 point per game scorer Trey Alexander. Third, these teams are remarkably balanced and both sides will be excellent basketball.

What About the Analytics?

In both Kenpom and Torvik, Tennessee and Creighton are both ranked in the top 12 according to Kenpom and Torvik, with Torvik favoring the latter by a point and a half. Both teams play at a middle of the pack pace with Tennessee playing slightly faster in the SEC. On the glass, Tennessee is a good on the offensive glass but Creighton is very good on the defensive glass. This leaves two areas that I think are vital in determining who wins this game:

Three Point Shooting -

Both teams shoot a lot of threes but Creighton goes to the extreme on both ends, ranking top 10 in three point attempt rate and opponent three point rate. For Tennessee, they will give up more threes but are one of the best at three point defense because they extend their defense more to apply pressure.

Turnovers -

Tennessee has the clear advantage over Creighton as the Blue Jays are the second worst team in the country at forcing turnovers and the Volunteers also do not turn the ball over as much as Creighton (14.9% vs 15.4%). That puts a lot of pressure on the point guard matchup between Zakai Zegler and Steven Ashworth.

Star Matchup

Dalton Knecht averages 21 points with 5 rebounds and 2 assists a game and was chosen a first team All-American for Tennessee. His best skill is his shooting and Tennessee loves to move him off the ball early in games. When Knecht is on the ball he is very good if teams allow him to play one on one. Every part of his game is built to score. I would like to see Creighton use Scheierman to start and focus on their help defense forcing Knecht to be a passer. If Knecht gets hot, I could see Creighton try to face guard Knecht.

On the other side, Baylor Scheierman scores 18 points per a game and adds 9 rebounds with 4 assists for the Blue Jays. Like Knecht, Scheierman's game is built on his shooting but Scheierman likes to add a few feet on his attempts. The third team All-American is ultra aggressive in transition, hunting long jumpers or lanes to attack the basket. In the half-court, Scheierman is more patient and balances scoring and playmaking very well. I expect Santiago Vescovi to guard Scheierman and making him a driver.

Who Wins?

With the shooting, Creighton has the ability to beat any team in the country (Just ask UConn). But the inability to force turnovers and the Blue Jays struggling to drive the ball, they are more concerns than answers for the Blue Jays. The extra shots from turnovers and offensive rebounds could be the difference with the Volunteers doing just enough to take the Creighton offense out of rhythm. For that reason, I am taking Tennessee to advance to the Elite Eight.