Can UConn Win a National Title?

This starts my inaugural expedition through college basketball to cipher out the contenders from the pretenders. The easiest place to start is Storrs, Connecticut where the reigning champions reside. Currently 20-2, UConn is cruising through the Big East with a single loss in conference and an impressive non-conference record that elevates them atop the AP poll for the fourth straight week.

In this series, I will explore each teams legitimacy to win a national title based on historical numbers that I will list below. Next, I am going to identify the strengths that could lead to a national title and the weaknesses that could prove fatal for each team. Finally, looking at some ideal and less than ideal matchups that could occur before reaching the title game.

Numerical Qualifications

NOTE: These do not disqualify teams, rather indicates confidence in those teams

1. Adjusted offensive efficiency above 110 (1 point)

   1. Elite offenses are above 120 (1 point)

2. Adjusted defensive efficiency below 100 (1 point)

   1. Elite defensive are below 95 (1 point)

3. Adjusted Tempo between 65 and 69 (1 point)

4. Offensive EFG% higher than defensive EFG% by four percent (1 point)

5. Defensive turnover rate higher than offensive turnover rate (1 point)

6. Offensive rebounding rate higher than defensive rebounding rate by 5 percent (1 point)

EIGHT POSSIBLE POINTS

UConn is in the favorites tier based on these qualifications with six points. From a statistical standpoint, their defense has been trending in the right direction but not yet reached the elite tier and a sluggish 64.8 pace were the two missed qualifications. Their statistical strength has been dominating teams in the effective field goal category, out pacing teams by 11.9 percent. A concern is their inability to force turnovers, forcing opponent turnovers on 17 percent of possession and that number slips to 15.8 when quad four games are filtered out.

What Makes UConn National Title Contenders

The offense for the Huskies has proven to be successful for the Huskies and this year is no different. Last year it was Jordan Hawkins, this year it is Cam Spencer who is a master at using his hands in borderline illegal ways to manipulate his defenders momentum or to blend cuts into screens that free up other Huskies. Their movement and flow forces teams to be nearly perfect on every possession to stop UConn from getting a great shot.

Defensively, having the inter-presence of Donavan Clingan combined with a perimeter stopper like Stephon Castle makes them flexible with matchups throughout a deep tournament run. Additionally, every starter for UConn possess plus positional size to form one of the top defensive groups in the country.

What Makes UConn Pretenders

The guard duo of Cam Spencer and Tristen Newton shouldering primary shot creating responsibilities. Both players have been awesome so far, but UConn's reliance on the guard pairing in late clock or clutch situations is slightly concerning. If either player begins to falter, UConn may not be able to make the late game runs that they have relied on to pull away from good competition in the Big East.

The lack of defensive disruption and playmaking from last year makes this UConn team feel different. They still have the elite spurt-ability but lack the spectacular on ball defense that they had last season. Making this years team susceptible to teams with quick guards that can pressure Clingan to protect the rim without fouling.

Magnificent March Matchups

1. The Huskies beautiful flowing offense battling against the aggressive switching Iowa State defense that has the perimeter athletes and style to combat the off ball movement from UConn. Yet, UConn's defense with the return of Clingan could be equally dominate. Thus, letting the game be decided by who gets more possessions and whose stars can make enough tough shots.

2. A rematch of blue bloods between Kansas and UConn in March would see two of the best cutting teams in the country battle it out once more. Additionally, Kansas has proven the ability to defensive rebound at the highest level by dominating Houston on the glass. But this time around UConn will be healthy with revenge on the mind and Kansas will not be in the friendly confines of Allen Fieldhouse. A matchup that could turn into an instant classic as two of the best coaches battle it out.

Can UConn Win Back to Back Titles?

Absolutely! This UConn team is very similar to last years team in a lot of ways. The emergence of Spencer as an amazing off-ball player and Stephon Castle as a clear first round pick gives this team arguably the best starting five in the sport. I am slightly concerned with their bench production and reliance on second half runs. Yet, the analytics and tape give me a lot of confidence in UConn's ability to make a deep run in March.